In the 12 months to June 2025, Australian wine exports appeared to recover on the surface, rising 13% to AUD 2.48 billion—thanks largely to China mainland’s tariff rollback. But beneath the headline growth lies a more sobering reality: the Chinese wine market, once a powerhouse for Australian producers, is now just a third the size it was in 2019. Despite the lifting of punitive tariffs in March 2024, Australian wine has yet to reclaim its pre-2019 glory, and recent data suggests the initial wave of exports to China mainland is already tapering off.
Exports to China mainland soared 123% in value to AUD 893 million, regaining its status as Australia’s top export market by value and accounting for over one-third of total wine export revenue. In volume terms, shipments jumped 162% to 85 million liters, making China mainland Australia’s third-largest market after the United Kingdom and the United States. The figures are striking, but context matters: in 2018, Australia shipped nearly twice that volume to China mainland. And while the rebound is notable, the broader Chinese wine market has shrunk dramatically, with imports from France, Italy, Spain, and Chile also in retreat.
The second quarter of 2025 offers further evidence of this normalization. Wine Australia’s Export Report shows that the value of shipments to China mainland from April to June fell 35% year-on-year. Chinese customs data reinforces this trend: in June alone, imports of Australian bottled wine fell 48.27% in volume and 71.44% in value compared to the previous year. These steep drops reflect a return to equilibrium after a one-off, inventory-driven restocking surge in Q2 2024, when Australian wines flooded back into the market post-tariff.
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This cooling in China mainland contrasts with a broader global picture of stagnation. Exports to markets outside China mainland fell 11% in value to AUD 1.59 billion and 6% in volume to 554 million liters. In the United States, where post-COVID consumer habits and rising competition from alternative beverages persist, exports dropped 12% to AUD 314 million—the lowest in over two decades. The United Kingdom, despite holding a 23% share of Australia’s off-premise wine sales, saw volume fall 6% to 204 million liters, driven by economic pressures and a decline in bulk shipments. Canada, while up 7% in value to AUD 157 million, posted a 10% volume drop. Only Southeast Asia showed modest growth, with volumes rising 4%, led by Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia.
With global wine consumption at its lowest since 1961, Australian producers face a perfect storm of oversupply, softening demand, and shifting consumer preferences. Australia’s 2025 export performance, then, is less a triumph than a temporary reprieve, driven largely by China mainland’s brief tariff-free resurgence. For winemakers, the road ahead remains uncertain: global demand remains muted, and China mainland’s rebound appears to be plateauing—not accelerating.
