Canada’s 61% collapse, but emerging markets and RTDs saved Brown-Forman

Brown-Forman just closed the books on the first half of fiscal 2026 (May–October 2025) with a headline that looks ugly at first glance: reported net sales down 4% to $1.96 billion. Strip out the end of the Korbel relationship, the missing Sonoma-Cutrer transition fees, and currency swings, however, and organic growth lands exactly flat. In the current climate, flat is a win.

The story is one of brutal regional divergence.

In Canada, trade tensions with the United States turned into a full boycott of American-made spirits in most provinces. Result: a 61% organic sales wipe-out in the country, almost entirely from Jack Daniel’s RTDs disappearing from retail shelves. The UK (-13% organic) and Germany (-8%) also remain stuck in a consumer spending slump. At home in the United States — still half of Brown-Forman’s business — organic sales were flat, but only because distributors loaded up under new contract terms. Actual consumption of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey and Tennessee Honey continued to slide, while premium tequila Herradura lost another 11% in an increasingly savage price war.

Where the lights stayed on was further south and east. Emerging markets delivered +12% organic growth, led by Brazil (+21%), Mexico (+18%) and Türkiye (+8%). Travel retail added a tidy +6%, powered by Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey and the fast-rising Gin Mare. In total, these brighter spots completely offset the developed-market pain.

Ready-to-drink proved the biggest hero. Tequila-based New Mix in Mexico stormed ahead +30% organic, stealing share in a category that keeps accelerating. The broader RTD portfolio grew 5% organically despite the Canadian disaster dragging Jack Daniel’s RTD down 4%. For a company famous for brown whiskey in heavy glass, the fact that a canned tequila cocktail is now one of its strongest growth drivers says everything about where the industry is heading.

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Within whiskey itself, the picture is familiar. Core Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey fell 6%, Honey another 6%, and the overall Jack Daniel’s family slipped 2%. Flavoured line extensions offered some relief — Tennessee Apple +14%, the brand-new Tennessee Blackberry already showing early promise — but they are still too small to move the needle on a billion-dollar flagship. The super-premium American whiskey stable, however, held firm: Woodford Reserve +6%, Old Forester +2%. Outside the Jack universe, Gin Mare roared +33% and Diplomático rum +12%, confirming that luxury gin and aged rum remain two of the hottest tickets in the on-trade.

Behind the scenes, Brown-Forman continues to execute the painful but necessary surgery it started last January: 12% global headcount cut, sale of the Louisville cooperage, and a complete overhaul of U.S. distribution that began in August. The cash-flow payoff is already visible — operating cash flow jumped $163 million year-on-year — and the company quietly bought back $99 million of its own stock in the half.

Management stuck to guidance: low-single-digit organic decline in both sales and operating income for the full fiscal year. After what they have just absorbed in Canada and still managed to post flat organic growth, that outlook now feels conservative rather than cautious.

For the rest of the spirits trade, the message is blunt. Developed markets are in for a prolonged chill — destocking, down-trading, and geopolitical flare-ups are not going away soon. Emerging markets and convenient, flavour-forward RTDs, on the other hand, remain the only two engines still firing on all cylinders. Eight months ago we wrote that Brown-Forman was winning with exactly that combination. Half a year later, with Canada in free-fall and Jack Daniel’s core under real pressure, the same formula is no longer a nice-to-have — it is what kept the company in the game.

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