Scotch Whisky exports in 2025 totalled £5.36 billion, down 0.6% in value and 4.3% in volume (equivalent to 1.34 billion 70cl bottles). The United States, the category’s largest value market, saw volumes fall 9.2% overall to 120 million bottles, with a sharper 15% drop from May to December following the April imposition of a 10% tariff; full-year value declined 4% to £933 million.
Meanwhile, a widening divergence appears: India solidified its position as the volume leader with 220 million bottles (+15%) and £286 million in value (+15%), while traditional premium Asian markets weakened markedly (Taiwan -22% value, Singapore -11.6% value, Japan -27% volume) and single malt exports fell 6% overall to £1.6 billion.
Key Figures at a Glance
- Global: Value £5.36bn (-0.6%), Volume 1.34bn 70cl bottles (-4.3%)
- United States: Value £933m (-4%), Volume 120m bottles (-9.2%; -15% May–Dec post-tariff)
- India: Value £286m (+15%), Volume 220m bottles (+15%) — largest by volume
- Turkey: Value £255m (+43%), Volume 53m bottles (+13%)
- Single Malt: £1.6bn (-6%)
- Bottled Blends: £3.2bn (+0.8%) — remain roughly 60% of total export value
- Value decline was less pronounced than volume decline, indicating relative mix resilience.
Core Drivers
Premium slowdown as the underlying global theme
Single malt exports declined 6%, with notable softness in key high-value Asian markets (Taiwan -22%, Singapore -11.6%, Japan volume -27%). Declines also appeared in France (-13% single malt value) and China (-16%). This mirrors broader softness seen across premium spirits categories and ongoing consumer downgrading, suggesting pressures that may prove more structural than purely cyclical.
US tariffs as the largest single-market shock
The 10% tariff from April 2025 drove a 15% volume drop in the critical May–December period, limiting full-year value decline to 4% as channels and retail absorbed some pressure, following normalisation of earlier pre-tariff stock movements. With a potential escalation to 35% looming in mid-2026, the US remains the dominant external variable weighing on the category.
Emerging market re-weighting as partial offset
Subscribe to our newsletter
India (+15% value and volume) and Turkey (+43% value) delivered the strongest growth, largely from lower-price-point segments and volume expansion. These gains highlight a rebalancing toward volume-led markets, but they have not fully offset premium weakness elsewhere.
Regional Snapshots
The 2025 data highlights a clear split between markets driving value and those driving volume.
Value Leadership vs Volume Leadership in 2025
- Value anchor — United States (£933m, despite -4%)
- Volume engine — India (220m bottles, +15%; now largest by volume)
- Stability base — EU (£1.5bn total, -1.8%; France £404m/-3.6% value/-14% volume, offset by gains in Germany +4.6% value/+5.8% volume and Spain +6% value)
- Emerging outliers — Turkey (+43% value to £255m), UAE (+7%)
Beyond these leadership roles, Asia-Pacific overall declined 8.3% in value (premium drag dominant despite India and modest China volume growth); Latin America and Middle East showed mixed results, with Turkey as the clear standout.
Industry Under Pressure
UK domestic pressures — cumulative spirits duty rises exceeding 17% over three years, plus new packaging taxes — are squeezing margins and contributing to reported production halts and job losses. Supply expansion during the premium boom years is increasingly meeting softer demand. However, the premium segment slowdown is more global than UK-specific, visible across tariff-free Asian markets as well. While tariffs represent a cyclical risk that could ease with trade negotiations, the ongoing tilt toward lower-price-point growth in emerging markets appears increasingly structural. SWA calls for zero-tariff US resolution, accelerated deals (Thailand, Mercosur, GCC) and no further UK tax hikes remain logical, but industry resilience will hinge on broader demand recovery beyond advocacy.
Outlook & Takeaways
2026 is likely to see flat to modest recovery at best, contingent on tariff stabilisation in the US and sustained momentum in key emerging markets. Premium segments may continue to face headwinds until consumer confidence in high-end spirits re-accelerates.
Scotch Whisky is transitioning from an era of relatively broad-based global expansion to one of more uneven, market-segment-specific growth cycles — a shift that may persist into the medium term, particularly if trade frictions persist and premium demand remains uneven.
